Export Dynamics of Vietnam: Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Approach = Động lực cho xuất khẩu của Việt Nam: Tiếp cận từ phương pháp giá trị gia tăng thương mại

Abstract

Summary of the new findings of the thesis: a. A long-run relationship exists between exports and GDP of Vietnam and shows a substantial long-run contribution of exports in the real GDP. A short-run relationship also exists between them. b. Agriculture, mining, foods and beverages, textile and footwear, computer and electronics, electrical machinery, manufacturing not elsewhere classified, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, and transport and storage have contributed significantly in the domestic value added export of Vietnam. c. Except agriculture, mining, and hotels and restaurant, the remaining industries do also have significant contributions in foreign value added exports of Vietnam. Most active industries in importing for exporting (I2E) activities are computer and electronics, textile and footwear, foods and beverages, and electrical machinery. d. China, Japan and South Korea are key suppliers of inputs as well as buyers of Vietnamese intermediate products. e. Agriculture, foods and beverage, and textile and footwear have shown comparative advantages across all six markets in consideration (the World, East Asia, ASEAN, EU, NAFTA, and BRIS) consistently through 1995-2011. f. Mining is competitive in East Asia, European Union and NAFTA; wood products in the World, East Asia, EU and NAFTA; non-metallic minerals in NAFTA only; computers and electronics in BRIS only; wholesale and retail trade in other than ASEAN market; and hotels and restaurants in the World, East Asia, EU, and BRIS. Apart from these, furniture that falls into manufacturing n.e.c. also has shown greater potential in recent period in terms of domestic value added exports. g. Exaggeration is found the in the gross export values of the ‘human capital and technology intensive industries’ (e.g. machinery and equipment, computer and electronics, electrical machinery, transportation etc.). However the gross exports are found consistent with the domestic value added exports for low skilled labour intensive (e.g. foods and beverage, textile and footwear), and services industries (e.g. trade, hotels and restaurants). h. Vietnam’s participation in GVC has increased significantly, mainly because of backward participation in computer and electronics, textile and footwear, foods and beverages, electrical machinery, basic metals, wholesale and retail trade, and transport and storage industries. i. Among the four models of export-led growth strategies viz. Germany and Japan model, Asian Tigers model, Mexico model, and Chinese model, Vietnam is found close to resemble the Mexico model, whereby it has turned itself into export production platforms for foreign multi-nationals by suppressing the wages, rather than developing own indigenous industrial capacity.